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Economic Environment (Nl)

In: Business and Management

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Forecast economic growth 2003 and 2004 for the EU, US and Japan; different views of institutions.

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Inhoudsopgave:

1. Inleiding 3 1.1 Instituten 3 1.2 Gross Domestic Product 3 1.3 opdracht 3
2. Groeicijfers CPB, EC, WB en IMF 4 2.2 Het Centraal Plan Bureau (CPB) 4 2.3 De Europese Commissie 5 2.4 De Worldbank 5 2.5 Het International Monetairy Fund (IMF) 6
3. Verklaring van de verschillen. 7 3.1 Publicatietijd 7 3.2 Manier van berekenen 7 3.3 Oorlog in Irak 7
Gebruikte bronnen 8

Inleiding

1.1 Instituten

Wereldwijd zijn er veel instituten die zich bezig houden met het voorspellen van macro-economische variabelen zoals de rente, de olieprijs en de dollarkoers. Met de toenemende globalisering worden deze macro-economische factoren steeds belangrijker voor de resultaten van ondernemingen, het bruto binnenlands product (bbp), het consumentenvertrouwen en de gezinsconsumptie.

Er zijn nationale instituten, instituten rondom internationale samenwerkingsverbanden en instituten rondom centrale banken. Hieronder een aantal voorbeelden van dit soort instituten.

|Nederland |Centraal Planbureau |CPB |
|Duitsland |Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung |DIW |
|UK |The National Institute of Economic & Social Research |NIESR |
|Amerika |National Bureau of Economic Research |NBER |

Tabel 1: voorbeelden van nationale instituten

|Europese Commissie |EC |
|World Economic Forum |WEF |
|Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development |OESD |
|UN Economic commission for Europe |UNESE |
|World Trade Organisation |WTO |

Tabel 2: voorbeelden van instituten rondom internationale samenwerkingsverbanden

|Worldbank |WB |
|Europese Centrale Bank |ECB |
|American Federal Reserve |AFR |
|International Monetairy Fund |IMF |

Tabel 3: voorbeelden van instituten rondom centrale banken

1.2 Gross Domestic Product

De maatstaf voor economische groei is het Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Dat is de totale marktwaarde van nieuwe goederen en services die geproduceerd zijn/worden in een bepaald jaar, binnen een landsgrens, waarbij het niet van belang is wie deze geproduceerd heeft. Het is gelijk aan de consumentenuitgaven, de investeringen en de overheidsuitgaven, plus de waarde van de export, min de waarde van de import. De GDP wordt vaak uitgedrukt in dollar 1997, om inflatie-effecten uit te schakelen en zo vergelijk met voorgaande jaren mogelijk te maken.

Om een inschatting te maken van de toekomstige verandering in GDP wordt gekeken naar verschillende indicatoren. Zo gebruikt het CPB de zg geharmoniseerde index van het consumentenvertrouwen, en gebruikt de EC ondermeer de Euro Growth Indicator.

1.3 opdracht

Voor deze opdracht worden de groeicijfers van een aantal voor Nederland belangrijke instituten instituten besproken: • het Centraal Plan Bureau (CPB) • De Europese Commissie (EC) • de Wereldbank (WB) • het International Monetairy Fund (IMF)

Groeicijfers CPB, EC, WB en IMF

1 Het Centraal Plan Bureau

Prognoses voor de Nederlandse economie worden twee maal per jaar gepubliceerd middels de Macro Economische Verkenning (MEV) en het Centraal Economisch Plan (CEP). In beide publicaties word onder meer een beeld gegeven van de internationale conjunctuur, de monetaire ontwikkelingen (inflatie, rentes en wisselkoersen), en de ontwikkeling van de olieprijs.

Voor de groeiprognoses voor de EU gebruikt het CPB onder andere de geharmoniseerde index van het consumentenvertrouwen (HICP). Deze index is speciaal ontwikkeld om de inflatiecijfers van de lidstaten van de Europese Unie met elkaar te vergelijken. Het belangrijkste verschil tussen de nationale index (CPI) en de HICP is de samenstelling van het pakket goederen en diensten waarop beide indices zijn gebaseerd. Evenals de CPI is de HICP gebaseerd op het uitgavenpatroon van huishoudens in 1995.

Voor de Verenigde Staten wordt de index van het producentenvertrouwen volgens de Purchasing Managers Index voor de industrie (Institute for Supply Management) en het consumentenvertrouwen volgens de Index of Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan) gebruikt

| |2003 |2004 |
|Wereld |3,25% |4% |
|EU |1,50% |2,75% |
|US |2,75% |3,75% |
|Japan |0,75% |1,25% |

Tabel 4: Prognose van het CPB voor de economische groei van EU, US en Japan.
Bron: CPB Centraal Economisch Plan 2003, 27 mrt 2003

Kernpunten uit de toelichting op de prognoses:

Wereld

• Grote onzekerheid over de economische ontwikkeling op korte termijn, afnemend eind 2003. • Opvering wereldhandel eind 2003. • Olieprijs blijft hoog door de internationale spanningen. • Matige inflatie in US en EU, aanhoudende deflatie in Japan. • Mogelijke stagnatie in productie in industrielanden in 2003 waardoor werkloosheid en overheidstekorten oplopen. • Na korte oorlog in Irak neemt consumentenvertrouwen toe. • Na korte oorlog in Irak daalt olieprijs. • Na korte oorlog in Irak neemt vanaf 2004 werkloosheid af.

EU

• BBP-volume zal matig toenemen. • Versnelling groei tot 2004 voornamelijk door toenemende bedrijfs investeringen. • Potentiële groei geschat op 2 tot 2,5% in 2004. • Matige productiegroei door minder export door sterke appreciatie Euro. • Inflatie in 2003 1,75% door appreciatie Euro. • Inflatie in 2004 1%, door geringe arbeidskosten en daling olieprijs.

US

• Daling binnenlandse bestedingen door daling aandelenkoersen door boekhoudschandalen. • Daling binnenlandse bestedingen door oplopende spanningen rond Irak. • Lage bedrijfsinvesteringen. • Werkloosheid van 5,8% zal groeien. • geraamde potentiële groei voor 2004 3,25%. • door soepel monetair beleid toename binnenlandse bestedingen. • Door stijging olieprijs in 2003 stijgende inflatie. • Toenemende export door depreciatie van de dollar. • Lopende rekeningtekort tot 5% BBP in 2003. • Lichte afname tekort in 2004. • Amerikaanse tekort overtreft tekort eurogebied.

Japan

• Groei 2003 van 0,75% wordt gedrukt door structurele hervormingen. • Groei komt voornamelijk door toenemende export. • Door matige groei blijft werkloosheid gelijk. • Door matige groei wordt overheidstekort 8% BBP. • Deflatie blijft in 2003, maar is in 2004 onwaarschijnlijk.

2 De Europese Commissie

De Europese Commissie publiceert via EUROFRAME twee keer per jaar de Euroframe Forecast. Voor de groeiprognose van de EU wordt als belangrijke indicator de Euro Growth Indicator gebruikt, en, net als bij het CPB, de Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).

| |2003 |2004 |
|Wereld |3,3% |3,7% |
|EU |1% *(was 1,8%) |2,2% *(was 2,6%) |
|US |2,3% |2,8% |
|Japan |1,2% |1,4% |

Tabel 5: Prognose van de EC voor de economische groei van EU, US en Japan.
Bron *FD 8 april 2003, Euroframe Forecast 2002, 29 nov. 2002

Kernpunten uit de toelichting op de prognoses:

Wereld

• Licht herstel van de wereldeconomie sinds half 2002, met name ontstaan door fiscale en monetaire maatregelen van de belangrijkste economieën. • Door sterk toenemende geaggregeerde vraag vanuit India en China is er een impuls om tot open handelsomgeving te komen. • Bijdrage groei wereldeconomie door India en China meer dan 33% in 2004. • Soepel monetair beleid van belangrijkste autoriteiten moet leiden tot stabiel inflatie.

EU

• Potential output groeit licht. • Werkloosheid stijgt licht. • Lagere rente door appreciatie Euro. • Binnenlandse vraag blijft dalen. • Inflatie blijft hoog, ecb zal rente verlagen. • Licht herstel economie verwacht vanaf eind 2003.

US

• Potential output zal voor langere tijd blijven stijgen. • Overheidstekort 2003 tot 5% GDP. • Werkloosheid blijft op langere termijn gelijk.

Japan

• Herstructurering vertraagt de groei tot eind 2004. • Licht herstel economie verwacht vanaf eind 2004. • Overheidstekort 2003 blijft hoog.

3 De Worldbank

De Worldbank brengt jaarlijks verschillende publicaties uit waaronder de Global Development Finance. Daarin worden vanuit met name financieel perspectief de macro-economische analyses gemaakt. Voor de voorspelling van de groei van de wereldeconomie wordt het model van de PPP (purchasing power parity) gebruikt, waarbij er vanuit gegaan wordt dat het effect van arbitrage bij wisselkoeresen uiteindelijk zal leiden tot gelijke prijzen.

| |2003 |2004 |
|Wereld |3,2% |4,1% |
|EU |1,8% |2,6% |
|US |2,6% |3,1% |
|Japan |0,8% |1,3% |

Tabel 6: Prognose van de Worldbank voor de economische groei van EU, US en Japan
Bron: global Development finance 2003, 12 mrt 2003

Kernpunten uit de toelichting op de prognoses:
Wereld
• Zorgelijke schuldensituatie in Latijns Amerika. • De dreiging van een militaire conflict in Irak (nb, publicatie is van voor de oorlog). • Daling van de olieprijs in 2003. • Gezonde stabilisatie van de wereldeconomie door toename handel, ontwikkelende technologie, sterkere instituten en meer financiële integratie. • Onwenselijk begrotingstekort van meer dan 5% in 2003 in US. • Zorgelijke performance van leningen in Japan. • Trage groei in Europa.

4 Het International Monetairy Fund

Het IMF brengt 2x per jaar de World Economic Outlook uit met voorspellingen van groeicijfers voor de wereldeconomie, de triad en alle landen afzonderlijk.

| |2003 |2004 |
|Wereld |3,25% |4,1% |
|EU |1,1%% |2,3% |
|US |2,2% |3,6% |
|Japan |0,8% |1% |

Tabel 7: Prognose van het IMF voor de economische groei van EU, US en Japan
Bron: World economic outlook april 2003, bijgesteld op 10 april, jaarvergadering IMF, cijfers FD 10 april 2003)

Kernpunten uit de toelichting op de prognoses:
Wereld
• Algemeen besef van onveiligere wereld tast groei lange termijn aan: wereldgroei van 4% naar 3,75%. • Verwachting verdwijnen onzekerheid Irak doet groei toenemen tot 4,1% in 2004.

EU

• Groei GDP blijft traag. • Geaggregeerde vraag blijft langzaam toenemen. • Begrotingstekort mag toenemen om taxshield omlaag te krijgen en meer ruimte te creeeren voor effecten van vergrijzing. • Effect dalende aandelenkoersen groot voor financiele instellingen.

US

• Verminderde binnenlandse vraag door lage aandelenkoersen. • Kans op sterke schommelingen in dollarkoers. • Toename potentiele output. • Toename Savings door vergrijzing.

Japan

• Zorgelijke situatie van nonperforming loans. • Neerwaartse spiraal kan met name door financiële instellingen doorbroken worden. • Geen herstel economie in 2003. • Door herstructurering wordt groei vertraagd op korte termijn.

3. Verklaring van de verschillen.

Zoals in onderstaande tabel te zien is, zijn er verschillen tussen de waardes van de groeiprognoses van de diverse instituten.

| |2003 |2004 |Publicatie datum |

|Wereld |EU |US |Japan |Wereld |EU |US |Japan | | |CPB |3,25% |1,5% |2,75% |0,75% |4% |2,75% |2,75% |1,25% |27/03/2003 | |EC |3,3% |1 % |2,3% |1,2% |3,7% |2,2% |2,8% |1,4% |08/04/2003 | |WB |3,2% |1,1% |2,6% |0,8% |4,1% |2,75% |3,75% |1,75% |12/03/2003 | |IMF |3,2% |1,1% |2,25% |0,8% |4,1% |2,3% |3,8% |1% |10/04/2003 | |Tabel 8: overzicht van de groeicijfers van EU, US en Japan door het CPB, EC, WB en IMF

De verschillen kunnen ontstaan zijn door publicatietijd, de manier van berekenen en de invloed van belangrijke gebeurtenissen. Quantitatief is het lastig deze verschillen te verklaren. Kwalitatief is er meer over te zeggen.

3.1 Publicatietijd

Elk instituut publiceert op bepaalde tijdstippen zijn prognoses. Regelmatig vind daarna een correctie plaats. Verschil in groeiprognoses kunnen ontstaan door de actualiteit van de gegevens.
Zoals in de tabel te zien is liggen de publicatiedata van de groeiprognoses erg dicht bij elkaar. Toch kunnen hierdoor verschillen zijn ontstaan. Zo kan het zijn dat bij een correctie van de prognose uit een oorspronkelijke publicatie een aantal indicatoren bijgesteld wordt, en andere indicatoren geëxtrapoleerd-, of onveranderd worden gelaten. De EC heeft bijvoorbeeld op 8 april haar prognoses voor de groei in de eurozone van 29 november 2002 fors naar beneden bijgesteld, voor 2003 met 0,8% en voor 2004 met 0,4%. In relatief korte tijd is dit een forse bijstelling.

3.2 Manier van berekenen

Elk instituut gebruikt zijn eigen indicatoren om de groeiprognoses te berekenen. Bij het bepalen van de toekomstige verandering van het GDP worden bij de EC en het CPB de actuele beurskoersen niet meegenomen. De Wereldbank en het IMF gebruiken wel de actuele beurskoersen. Door de huidige lage beurskoersen kan de geaggregeerde vraag minder zijn, evenals de vermogenspositie van financiele instellingen. Deze kunnen een negatief effect veroorzaken op de groeicijfers.

3.3 Oorlog in Irak

Het ontstaan van de oorlog in Irak kan een belangrijke verklaring zijn voor de verschillen. De oorlog in Irak is begonnen op 20 maart 2003. Het is een onbekend hoe het verloop van de oorlog zal zijn. Verschillende scenario’s zullen elk hun effect hebben op de groeiprognoses.
De publicatiedata van groeiprognoses van de Wereldbank liggen voor de start van de oorlog. Vergeleken met bijvoorbeeld de laatste groeiprognoses van het IMF van na de oorlog zijn deze voor de US in 2003 en de EU in 2004 behoorlijk verschillend.

Gebruikte bronnen

Publicaties:
Centraal Plan Bureau, Centraal Economisch Plan 2003, 27 mrt 2003
Euroframe, Euroframe Forecast 2002, 29 nov. 2002
International Monetairy Fund, World economic outlook, april 2003
Worldbank, Global Development finance 2003, 12 mrt 2003

FD 8 april 2003 - Groei eurozone valt lager uit

FD 10 april 2003 - IMF ziet vredesdividend jaren negentig wegsmelten. - Begrotingsbeleid in eurgebied mag van fonds soepeler - Herstel broos, ook na snel einde oorlog - IMF wil dat ECB mikt op meer inflatie

Geraadpleegde websites: www.cpb.nl www.euroframe.nl www.eu.nl www.worldbank.org www.imf.org www.cbs.nl www.eurostat.nl www.fd.nl www.bls.gov www.europarl.eu.int www-personal.umich.edu/~alandear/glossary/ www.investorwords.com www.kb.nl Afbeelding voorpagina:
Wereldkaart uit de cartografische collectie van de Koninklijke Bibliotheek te Den Haag.…...

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...Economic Environment Apple’s domestic environment is the United States of America. While Rostow’s five stages of development can be somewhat helpful, some argue that Rostow’s model was developed with western cultures in mind and is not applicable to least developed countries (Ford, 2004). Because Apple was developed in a westernized culture, the model is slightly more helpful. However, several economists believe the model, as a predictive one is not very helpful, that instead its main use it to highlight the need for investment. Rostow’s five stages of development is essentially a growth model (Ford, 2004). Because of the model being created in the 1960s, some of the stages do not exactly match up to today’s businesses. For example, stage one is labeled as the traditional society. In this stage, the producers consume their own goods. It goes on to explain that when goods were traded, they were traded for other goods, rather than someone paying money for them. At this time, agriculture was the most important industry. Today, Apple definitely does not trade goods directly for other goods. Apple sells directly to consumers in exchange for money. This goes for both domestic and global environments. Stage two becomes slightly more similar to today’s economy. Specialization increases and transportation is accessible and used to support trade. Apple has corned the market with their technological devices and offers store around the country. Also, because of mass......

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The Global Economic Environment

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Economic Policy and the Global Environment

...Summary of article The central bank of Singapore; Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), has reported slowing down the pace of the Singapore dollar's appreciation to stimulate the economic growth. During the beginning of the 4th quarter this year, it was reported that Singapore's core inflation had reached a six-month high record of 0.6 per cent in the year, but the possible issue of deflation due to the slow global growth is still the primary concern for most. One of the other reason that why MAS wants to use a more aggressive easing approach to slow the local dollar’s gain against its trading partners could be the need of guarding against the import inflation. Due to high demand, Singapore yearly imports around S$464 billion of goods and major of them are the fruits and vegetables, the weakening of Singapore dollar compared to US dollar makes the prices of most imported perishable items more expensive. The secondary reason could be coming up with fiscal expansionary policy measures to revive the growth mainly because the government’s spending on building infrastructure over the past years have shown positive effects. Lastly, the estimation of unexpectedly stronger advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter could be the reason for slowing the pace of local dollar appreciation. Introduction Due to the scarcity of land and labor, Singapore is facing not enough manpower and at the same time underemployment and...

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Indian Economic Environment

...INDIAN ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT The Economy of India , ninth largest in the world by nominal GDP and third largest by purchasing power parity (PPP), is going to touch new heights in coming years. The history of Indian economy can be broadly divided into three phases: Pre- Colonial, Colonial and Post Colonial.  Pre Colonial: The economic history of India since Indus Valley Civilization to 1700 AD can be categorized under this phase. During Indus Valley Civilization Indian economy was very well developed. It had very good trade relations with other parts of world, which is evident from the coins of various civilizations found at the site of Indus valley. Before the advent of East India Company, each village in India was a self sufficient entity. Each village was economically independent as all the economic needs were fulfilled with in the village. Colonial: The arrival of East India Company in India ruined the Indian economy. There was a two-way depletion of resources. British used to buy raw materials from India at cheaper rates and finished goods were sold at higher than normal price in Indian markets. During this phase India's share of world income declined from 22.3% in 1700 AD to 3.8% in 1952.  Post Colonial: After India got independence from this colonial rule in 1947, the process of rebuilding the economy started. For this various policies and schemes were formulated. First five year plan for the development of Indian economy came into implementation in......

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