Technical Analysis Black Wednesday

In: Historical Events

Submitted By timwaaijer
Words 1501
Pages 7
17-05-2013 Internationale Monetaire Betrekkingen C. Troost

Groep 109A 2012/2013 Semester 2 Blok 2

Een technische analyse van Black Wednesday aan de hand van de Simplest Test
Sjeel Meijerink Tim Waaijer 10248552 6036759

Op 16 september 1992 verliet Groot-Brittannië het Europese Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Naar deze dag wordt sindsdien gerefereerd als “Black Wednesday”, de dag dat George Soros £1 miljard verdiende door te speculeren op een daling van de Britse pond (Leftly, 2012). Tot 1990 stemde de Bank of England (BoE) haar beleid af op dat van de Duitse Centrale Bank (Kenen, 1995, p. 6). Groot Brittannië maakte tot die tijd geen deel uit van het ERM. Door een hoge inflatie besloot Groot Brittannië in 1990 toch mee te doen met het ERM en kreeg een vaste wisselkoers ten opzichte van de Duitse Mark. De EEG stond echter een bandbreedte toe waarin een wisselkoers mag bewegen (Higgins, 1993, p. 29). Voor Groot Brittannië was dit tussen 6% boven de vastgestelde koers van 2,95 DM/£ en 6% er beneden, de wijde bandbreedte (Higgins, 1993, p.30). Anderen landen in het ERM moesten een strengere band van 2,25% aanhouden. Groot Brittannië, Italië en Frankrijk werden beschouwd als zwakkere economische landen met een hoge inflatie en daarom werd toegestaan dat zij een bandbreedte van 6% kregen in plaats van 2,25% (Higgins, 1993, p. 30). De afspraak is dat de overheid en de centrale bank de binnenlandse munt zullen kopen en verkopen om de wisselkoers binnen die band te houden (Pilbeam, 2006, p. 148). Voor de markt betekent dit dat wanneer een wisselkoers in de buurt komt van de uiteinden van de band, er waarschijnlijk een devaluatie of revaluatie gaat aankomen. Zo blijft de koers binnen de afgesproken bandbreedte (Grafiek 1). Svensson (1990, p. 3) heeft op basis van de afgesproken bandbreedte gemeten wat de markt verwachtte ten aanzien van de Zweedse target…...

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